$IBRX · ANKTIVA Valuation Model

Current Price

$8.40

Mar 19, 2026

Shares Outstanding

947M

As of Dec 31, 2025

Current Market Cap

~$8.0B

At $8.40/share

Net Debt

~$603M

Inc. $505M Nant note

Select Scenario

⚖ Base Case

▲ Bull Case

▼ Bear Case

Model Assumptions

2026E US Revenue ($M) —

Revenue CAGR 2026–2028 —

Insurance / NCCN Uplift (%) —

Int'l Revenue (% of US, 2028E) —

EV / Revenue Multiple (2028E) —

Dilution from Future Raises (%) —

ANKTIVA Revenue Projection ($M) · Actual + Forecast

⚠️

RIPA & Convertible Note — Hidden Value Drains

Oberland's Revenue Interest Purchase Agreement (RIPA) skims tiered percentages off worldwide net sales until 195% of cumulative payments are reached — reducing cash available to equity. The $505M Nant Capital convertible note (due Dec 2027, convertible at $5.43/share) also looms: if converted, it adds ~93M new shares at below-market prices and significantly dilutes holders.

Implied Valuation Waterfall

2028E Total Revenue —

× EV/Revenue Multiple —

= Implied Enterprise Value —

− Net Debt (~$603M) −$603M

= Implied Equity Value —

÷ Diluted Shares (947M + raises) —

Implied Price / Share —

How the implied price is calculated

Step 1 2028E Revenue = 2026E Revenue × (1 + Insurance Uplift) × (1 + CAGR)² × (1 + Int'l %)

Step 2 Enterprise Value = 2028E Revenue × EV/Revenue Multiple

Step 3 Equity Value = Enterprise Value − Net Debt ($603M)

Step 4 Diluted Shares = 947M × (1 + Dilution %)

                Result
                
                    Price / Share = Equity Value ($M) ÷ Diluted Shares (M)
                     → units cancel directly to $/share

Net Debt = $505M Nant Capital convertible note + ~$98M other liabilities. EV/Revenue multiples for high-growth biotech peers range 5–20×. The multiple is the single biggest swing factor in the output.

vs. Current Price ($8.40)

—

implied upside / downside

Implied 2028E P/S

—

on current ~$8B mkt cap

Analyst Consensus PT

$14.40

5 analysts · Strong Buy

Key Catalysts

📋

BCG-Naïve BLA — Q4 2026

Unlocks the ~10× larger BCG-naïve market. NCCN Category 1 upgrade would trigger automatic payer coverage.

🌍

EU Commercial Launch

Accord Healthcare deploying across 31 EU countries. Substantive intl revenue expected from 2027, Germany first.

🫁

NSCLC FDA Pathway (2026)

Saudi Arabia already approved. FDA discussions planned. Lung cancer is a massive TAM, but faces Keytruda/Opdivo.

💊

Papillary sBLA (Filed Mar 2026)

FDA sBLA filed at agency invitation. NCCN already listed. Approval closes the last major US label gap.

Risk Register

Cash burn: ~$305M operating outflow in 2025; ~$243M cash remaining at year end HIGH

Nant Capital $505M convertible note due Dec 2027 — dilution or refinancing risk HIGH

RIPA royalty drain on all worldwide net sales (195% cumulative target) HIGH

Competition from JNJ Inlexzo and checkpoint inhibitors in bladder/NSCLC HIGH

Current P/S ~67× on 2025 revenues — market already pricing in steep growth MEDIUM

BCG-naïve trial readout risk (data still pending) MEDIUM

EU/intl reimbursement delays; pricing pressure vs. US MEDIUM

US commercial momentum strong; J-code in place, repeat ordering confirmed LOW

⚠ NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE · ILLUSTRATIVE MODEL ONLY
Shares outstanding ~947M per Dec 2025 10-K. Net debt ~$603M per Q3 2025 filings.
Analyst consensus $14.40 per 5 analysts as of Mar 18 2026. All revenue projections are estimates.
Consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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